P31 – Predictive Alerts and Atmospheric Data for Airport Windshear by CPAS 200m Weather Model
Presenter
DescriptionLow-level wind shear (LLWS) at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) poses significant aviation risks, primarily driven by terrain-induced turbulence from Lantau Island and sea-breeze interactions. While current mitigation relies on real-time detection and short-term forecasting, for operational purposes, it is ideal to extend horizons to manage wind shear (WS). This study evaluates a 200-m resolution limited-area simulation using the MPAS-based ClusterTech Platform for Atmospheric Simulation (CPAS) to predict sea-breeze shear 24 hours in advance based on historical success in resolving coastal and terrain features. The framework utilises Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) to optimise computational efficiency, triggering the 200-m high-resolution Lantau mesh, all running on a conventional CPU-based HPC system. Validated against 10 cases from spring 2025—7 WS and 3 non-WS events—the model successfully captured sea-breeze onset within 2 hours of METAR warnings in 6 out of 7 WS cases. Furthermore, it correctly predicted the 3 non-WS cases, accurately simulating the suppression of local circulation by slightly strong prevailing winds. These results demonstrate the viability of the 200-m CPAS configuration for day-ahead operational forecasting. Future work will expand validation to include terrain-induced wake turbulence and microburst scenarios.
TimeTuesday, June 3012:17 – 12:18 CEST
LocationBldg. 6 – 001 – Plenary Room
Session Chair
Event Type
ACM SRC Poster
PASC Poster
